As “America First” returns to the global stage, Donald Trump’s second presidency threatens to reshape international relations, sparking concerns that his transactional, autocrat-friendly approach could erode the principles upholding the world order. By focusing on “deals” over alliances and disregarding global norms, the U.S. risks becoming an unpredictable partner, one whose allies in Europe and Asia may soon hedge their bets with rivals China and Russia.
Trump’s first tenure in the Oval Office demonstrated a strong preference for power over principle. Notoriously praising Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “genius” for his invasion of Ukraine and lauding Chinese President Xi Jinping for his authoritarian rule, Trump’s approach to diplomacy favors autocrats and minimizes rules. His vision is bluntly clear: allies must bear more defense costs or risk facing U.S. ambivalence. Trump has openly considered allowing Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” with NATO countries that fail to meet his spending expectations and proposed imposing a 10% tariff on imports, affecting both allies and competitors.
A generous interpretation is that Trump’s tough talk is a tactic to press allies for increased defense commitments. Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien claims that Trump would deliver “peace through strength,” bolstering alliances by compelling partners to become more self-reliant while keeping adversaries wary of U.S. power. But Trump’s disdain for established rules-based order and preference for transactional deals may alienate allies who view such posturing as coercive rather than strategic.
A Shaky Transatlantic Partnership
Europe’s confidence in U.S. reliability may erode if Trump returns to power, especially for vulnerable countries like Ukraine. Trump’s suggestion that he could end the war in 24 hours implies he might pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy into a settlement with Russia—possibly by withholding arms unless Kyiv agrees to terms. Some speculate that Trump’s vision for a peace deal could involve ceding illegally occupied territories to Moscow, a stance echoed by his running mate JD Vance.
The potential for a U.S.-brokered “bad deal” in Ukraine threatens the European Union’s security, reinforcing Russia’s power while straining EU economies that would bear the brunt of Trump’s tariffs. While collective action would be ideal—Europe investing in defense, providing Ukraine with continued support if U.S. aid wanes—Europe’s own political and financial instability complicates unified action. Nationalistic sentiment across Europe mirrors Trump’s populism, bolstering right-wing parties sympathetic to Moscow and fracturing consensus on security policies.
With Germany and France mired in political and economic challenges, Europe’s most likely response to a fractured transatlantic alliance is a patchwork of individualized deals. Some nations may align with Trump; others may seek common ground with Putin; and others, precariously, may do both. This division offers China an opening to deepen ties with Europe, presenting itself as an alternative on trade and climate change if Trump once again withdraws the U.S. from the Paris climate accord.
Asia on Edge
In Asia, Trump’s return has heightened anxieties over Taiwan and regional security. Xi Jinping, intent on reuniting Taiwan with mainland China, may see Trump’s stance on Ukraine as a signal that the U.S. would hesitate to defend Taiwan, especially given Trump’s accusation that Taiwan has “stolen” U.S. semiconductor dominance. If Washington shows weakness, other American allies like Japan and South Korea may pursue nuclear capabilities for self-defense, wary of China’s growing assertiveness.
The Philippines, now leaning toward the U.S. for support against China’s aggression in the South China Sea, could temper its stance to avoid provoking Beijing. Vietnam and India—both nations that recently edged closer to Washington due to tensions with China—might also rethink their U.S. alliances, hedging against an uncertain American commitment to Asian security.
For China, a weakened U.S. commitment to its Asian allies is a golden opportunity. With Russia pressuring Ukraine into a submissive peace deal, China could assert hegemony over East Asia, bolstered by a Moscow-aligned Europe and a diminished U.S. presence. Together, China and Russia would command formidable influence across Eurasia, potentially realizing their vision of a multipolar world.
Imperiling the World Order
China has long argued that the U.S. is a waning superpower, a claim only partly accurate. Despite losing its economic dominance since the 1960s, the U.S. still holds many long-term advantages over China, especially in demographics and innovation. But beyond economic power, America’s strength lies in the global alliances and rules it has fostered since World War II.
Trump’s approach may jeopardize these foundations, potentially accelerating the decline he aims to prevent. “America First” could ultimately signal a more isolated and diminished America, fulfilling China’s predictions of a world where U.S. influence is eclipsed by rising authoritarian powers.
Sagar Chaudhary care@ganntradingmethod.com ganntradingmethod.com
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