Chinese policymakers are reportedly contemplating letting the yuan weaken to counteract the potential impact of increased U.S. trade tariffs, according to sources cited by Reuters last week. A devalued yuan could ripple across Asia, weakening regional currencies, but it might offer a unique advantage for Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who faces a key decision on interest rates during the central bank's meeting this Wednesday. The BOJ will determine whether to proceed with a third rate hike this year.
If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his pledge to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is likely to allow the yuan to depreciate, making its exports more competitive and cushioning the economic blow. However, this strategy could spell trouble for other export-driven economies in Asia, as their currencies might come under downward pressure similar to what occurred during the earlier U.S.-China trade conflict.
The Japanese yen, already prone to volatility, has experienced significant fluctuations this year. In July, when Japan’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates to a 15-year high, the yen surged sharply, triggering a global unwinding of carry trades and a sell-off in developed market equities. Tokyo’s Nikkei index experienced its steepest single-day drop since 1987’s Black Monday. The fallout was so severe that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba urged caution in the central bank’s approach.
However, a weaker yuan could mitigate upward pressure on the yen. Analysts anticipate further rate hikes from the BOJ next year, but a September analysis by Goldman Sachs highlighted the yen's heightened sensitivity to movements in the Chinese renminbi compared to other global currencies.
Should the United States impose a 25-percentage-point increase in tariffs on Chinese goods next year, and China responds by devaluing the yuan to around 7.5 per dollar from its current level of 7.27, the yen could depreciate slightly as well. According to Jain Chandresh, a foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas, this scenario might see the yen ending next year at approximately 156 per dollar. Without the tariffs, Chandresh projects the yen could strengthen to about 140 by the close of 2025.
The Bank of Japan, for now, appears inclined to maintain its current interest rates, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Officials are likely to delay any major policy shifts until after President Trump takes office next month, giving them time to assess whether another trade war materializes. This would allow Governor Ueda to make a more strategic move at the opportune moment.
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